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Given the growing importance of groundwater in irrigated crop production, policies aimed at restricting groundwater use create fears of intensified food insecurity. Yet, a comprehensive quantitative analysis is required to evaluate the impacts of groundwater sustainability restrictions on food system. Using a multi-scale multi-system framework integrating economic and biophysical determinants of sustainability, we find that the local economic impacts of a groundwater sustainability policy are often substantial. However, due to market-mediated responses, including surface water substitution, expansion of rainfed production, relocation and virtual trade in blue water, the final impact on global food prices and production is surprisingly modest.

When the virtual water runs out: local and global responses to addressing unsustainable groundwater consumption