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The aim of this study is to investigate the capability using the China-PAR stroke equations for predicting 10-year risk of stroke among the Inner Mongolian population in China. A prospective cohort study was conducted among 2535 rural Inner Mongolian residents from June 2002 to July 2012. Participants were categorized into four subgroups according to their 10-year predicted stroke risks calculated using the China-PAR stroke equations: &lt;5%, 5–9.9%, 10–19.9%, and ≥20%. The C-statistic of the China-PAR stroke equations for 10-year stroke was 0.58, and the result from Hosmer–Lemeshow ‘goodness-of-fit’ test showed that the China-PAR stroke equations fitted the Inner Mongolian women well ( χ 2   = 11.18,  P  = 0.192). The adjusted hazard ratios of stroke were 3.86 (95% CI: 1.12–13.29) for 5–9.9% category, 10.37 (95% CI: 2.70–39.84) for 10–19.9% category, and 17.00 (95% CI: 3.54–81.63) for ≥20% category among Inner Mongolian women using the &lt;5% category as reference ( P  for trend &lt;0.001). However, the China-PAR stroke equations underestimated the 10-year stroke risk in Inner Mongolian men, and the calibration was unsatisfactory ( χ2  = 15.82,  P  = 0.045). The China-PAR stroke equations have potential predictive ability for 10-year stroke risk in the rural Inner Mongolian women, while it might not suit the rural Inner Mongolian men well. The performance of China-PAR stroke equations in other ethnic groups in China will need to be further evaluated.

Utility of China -PAR stroke equations for predicting 10-year stroke risk in the rural Inner Mongolian population in China