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In this paper, we evaluate the French balance-of-payments constrained growth rate and we compare it with the effective growth rate. Empirically, we show that France is experiencing, simultaneously to its European integration, a substantial increase in the income elasticity of demand for imports and a collapse in the growth rate of its exports. Within the balance-of-payments constrained growth approach, this twofold negative effect is a major obstacle to true economic recovery and full employment.

The slowing of growth in France: an interpretation based on Thirlwall’s law