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Climate change is expected to significantly impact bird species through changes to breeding and survival. Malleefowl ( Leipoa ocellata ) are threatened mound-building birds that persist in uncleared mallee and shrubland vegetation in semi-arid parts of southern Australia. Our aim was to understand the relationship between environmental factors and mound breeding activity (a proxy for population trends) to identify likely climate change impacts and possible proactive management actions. We compared annual activity at grids that encompassed groups of mounds at six sites in South Australia for up to 24 years with a range of environmental and habitat variables, focussing on variables predicted to change with a warming climate. Mound activity declined significantly over the study period at five of the six sites. Activity was positively associated with increased cumulative rain in the previous 2 years, lower average maximum temperatures in the winter, higher-than-average Southern Oscillation Index (i.e. more rain) 2 years before breeding and greater winter vegetation cover. These results suggest that moisture and vegetation cover are important for higher breeding activity. Climate change is predicted to lead to drier conditions and more frequent fires in our study region, suggesting that Malleefowl populations will continue to decline. We urge conservation practitioners to minimise climate change impacts through implementing proactive management actions that increase habitat quality for Malleefowl: fire management to reduce the scale of fire events and controlling introduced and overabundant native herbivores to preserve vegetation cover, retain soil moisture, increase food resources and protect from temperature extremes.

Trends in breeding activity of the threatened Malleefowl ( Leipoa ocellata ): what can we expect under a changing climate?