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The Daning River Basin is a typical representative of the ‘mountain forest’ in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) area of the Yangtze River. In recent years, with the completion of the Three Gorges Project, the local vegetation has degraded, soil erosion has become severe, and there is an urgent need to assess the environmental quality. Data were fused using the MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (250 m) and Landsat NDVI (30 m) through an Enhanced Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (ESTARFM) to obtain ESTARFM NDVI (30 m). This data was then entered into the Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) model, along with meteorological and land use data, to calculate vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) and trends in the Daning River Basin. The detection of drivers with a high impact on vegetation NPP was done using a Geodetector. The results show that: (1) In terms of spatial and temporal changes, the annual average NPP of the watershed during the 13 years from 2008 to 2020 generally showed an upward trend, with the average yearly vegetation NPP being 512.33gC·m −2 ·a −1 , exhibiting a low southwest to surrounding increasing trend along the river. (2) The spatial and temporal variation of vegetation NPP is influenced by several factors synergistically, with elevation, temperature, and distance from settlements being the dominant factors. The interaction of these two factors can enhance the explanatory power of vegetation NPP. Through the estimation of vegetation NPP and the analysis of influencing factors in the Daning River Basin, this study can provide a reference for the ecological restoration and management of vegetation NPP in small watersheds under similar environments.

Analysis of spatial and temporal variation of vegetation NPP in Daning River Basin and its driving forces