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Did new geographies of population growth emerge in China? The answer, from recently released 2020 census main data, appears to be no. Between 2010 and 2020, population grew faster northwest of the Hu line than southeast of the line despite the former area’s harsher natural environment. In general, population still increased, and increased faster, in places that previously grew, and grew faster, despite China’s economic slowdown and restructuring. Areas hosting megacities were still largely more advantaged in population growth than those hosting large cities, which in turn were more advantaged than those hosting smaller cities, despite the converse being the plan of the state. These results imply that, compared to other factors, the natural environment had relatively limited impact on population growth in China over the past decade; that major cities might not necessarily decline in population as the country’s economy slows down and restructures; and that the ability of the Chinese state to reshape the geography of population growth might be restricted.

People and Places in the 2020 Census: New Geographies of Population Growth in China?