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More than 200 million individuals have been diagnosed with carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) in China. We aimed to investigate the incidence and potential predictors of CAS progression in a low-income rural area in China. A population-based cohort study was conducted on individuals aged ≥45 years from 2014 to 2019. Multivariable analyses were used to investigate the predictors of carotid plaque (CP) formation, plaque number, and carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT). A total of 1479 participants were finally enrolled in this study. The incidence rate of CP was 42.9 cases per 1000 person-years, and the progression of median CIMT was 137.50 μm over five years. The risk of CP formation increased 2-fold in participants aged ≥75 years (P = 0.002) compared with those aged 45–54 years. The corresponding risk was 59% higher in participants with hypertension (P = 0.001) and 73% higher in alcohol drinkers (P = 0.006). With each 1- standard deviations (SD) increase in high- and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, the risk of CP occurrence decreased by 16% (P = 0.016) and increased by 29% (P = 0.002), respectively. Participants aged ≥75 years exhibited a 3.3-fold higher risk of having a high number of plaques than those aged 45–54 years (P = 0.014). Moreover, older age and the waist-to-hip ratio were independent predictors of CIMT progression. This is the first longitudinal study to explore the incidence and predictors of CAS progression in a low-income rural population in China with a high prevalence of stroke. More detailed and precise strategies for prevention and intervention of CAS progression are necessary, especially in low-income rural areas in China.

Incidence and predictors of progression of carotid atherosclerosis in a low-income Chinese population—a prospective cohort study