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To analyze the non-linear impact of technological progress on carbon emission intensity under different economic development levels, based on the adjusted STIRPAT model and threshold panel model, this study uses the IPCC inventory method and the DEA-Malmquist method to measure the carbon emissions intensity and technological progress index of 30 provinces in China from 2001 to 2016 to empirically examine the impact of technological progress on carbon emissions intensity. The results reveal that technological progress will increase carbon emissions intensity; technological progress with economic development level as the threshold variable has a single threshold effect on carbon emissions intensity, and the threshold value is 10.5656. Correspondingly, when the per capita GD is lower than 38,777.68 yuan, technological progress will increase the intensity of carbon emissions; when it is higher than 38,777.68 yuan, there will be a reduction effect.

Economic development, technological progress, and provincial carbon emissions intensity: empirical research based on the threshold panel model