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The COVID-19 pandemic was responsible for the cancellation of both the men'sand women's 2020 National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Division 1basketball tournaments. Starting from the point at which the Division 1tournaments and any unfinished conference tournaments were cancelled, wedeliver closed-form probabilities for each team of making the Division 1tournaments, had they not been cancelled, aided by use of conformal predictivedistributions. We also deliver probabilities of a team winning March Madness,given a tournament bracket. We then compare single-game win probabilitiesgenerated with conformal predictive distributions, aptly named conformal winprobabilities, to those generated through linear and logistic regression onseven years of historical college basketball data, specifically from the2014-2015 season through the 2020-2021 season. Conformal win probabilities areshown to be better calibrated than other methods, resulting in more accuratewin probability estimates, while requiring fewer distributional assumptions.

Using Conformal Win Probability to Predict the Winners of the Cancelled 2020 NCAA Basketball Tournaments