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A model is proposed to account for selective chemical evolution, progressing from a relatively simple initial set of abiotic synthetic phenomena up to the elaborately sophisticated processes that are almost certainly required to produce the complex molecules, such as replicatable RNA-like oligonucleotides, needed for a Darwinian form of selection to start operating. The model makes the following assumptions: (i) that a small number of micromolecular substances were present at high concentration; (ii) that a random assembly mechanism combined these molecules into a variety of multimeric compounds comprising a wide repertoire of rudimentary catalytic activities; and (iii) that a lytic system capable of breaking down the assembled products existed. The model assumes further that catalysts supplied with substrates were significantly protected against breakdown. It is shown that, by granting these assumptions, an increasingly complex network of metabolic pathways would progressively be established. At the same time, the catalysts concerned would accumulate selectively to become choice substrates for elongation and other modifications that could enhance their efficiency, as well as their survival. Chemical evolution would thus proceed by a dual process of metabolic extension and catalytic innovation. Such a process should be largely deterministic and predictable from initial conditions.

Selection by differential molecular survival: a possible mechanism of early chemical evolution.