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Climatologists tell us that Earth's climate is changing (1): It currently seems clear that a warmer climate is developing in the northern hemisphere, and that the weather will become more variable (2, 3). As part of this global change, seasonal patterns are being altered to make spring conditions occur earlier in the year in the north (4), without necessarily corresponding changes in more southern latitudes (5). We know much less about the ecological effects of such climate changes. Studying recent changes (6) and fluctuations (7) over the last few decades may help us improve our understanding of ecological responses to climate changes. This is the approach taken by Winkler et al. (8), in this issue of PNAS, in their study of the consequences of climate-induced shifts in breeding date on one of the most important life history traits in birds: clutch size (8). Their contribution adds to a rapidly growing literature on ecology–climate interactions (6, 7). Phenology, a key feature in the article by Winkler et al. (8), is the study of seasonal plant and animal activity driven by environmental factors (4). The phenology of a species is typically evolved through natural selection to match the environmental conditions to maximize its fitness (9). In the temperate region, reproduction in birds starts in late spring or early summer, although timing often varies depending on climate. The effect of climate on the phenology, and in particular the timing of reproduction, is well known for plants, amphibians, and birds (10–12). These studies have demonstrated that onset of reproduction in spring may have advanced by a week or two due to recent changes in climate over much of North America and Europe (6, 7). We know much less about the implications of such phenological changes on the …

Climate, changing phenology, and other life history traits: Nonlinearity and match–mismatch to the environment