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McConnell et al. (1) suggest that the eruption of Alaska’s Okmok volcano in 43 BCE strongly affected historical events in the late Roman Republic and the Ptolemaic Kingdom.This interpretation is problematic, first because classical sources can plausibly be interpreted in completely different ways. The handling of natural disasters and phenomena by ancient authors often has to be seen in a religious context: Calamities were interpreted as precursors, concomitants, and aftermath of incisive events like military defeats or the death of an emperor. From this perspective, unusual events such as the death of Iulius Caesar result from an interruption of balance between gods and human beings—manifested in a … [↵][1]1To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: sebastian.strunz{at}ufz.de. [1]: #xref-corresp-1-1

Did volcano eruptions alter the trajectories of the Roman Republic and the Ptolemaic Kingdom? Moving beyond black-box determinism