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Significance We present climate projections of population-weighted heat and cold exposure that directly and simultaneously account for greenhouse gas (GHG) and urban development-induced warming. Previous population heat and cold exposure estimates have not accounted for urban development-induced climate impacts, have neglected interactions between urban development-induced warming and GHG-induced climate change, and have used fixed temperature thresholds that may be inappropriate for some cities. We develop a more detailed and nuanced definition of extreme heat and cold exposure through key innovations, and our predicted exposure is substantially greater than previous assessments. Our results demonstrate that Sunbelt cities are projected to undergo the largest relative increase in population heat exposure to locally defined extreme heat conditions during the 21st century.

The motley drivers of heat and cold exposure in 21st century US cities