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Significance REDD+ is the main international policy to reduce CO2 emissions from deforestation in tropical countries. However, there are no empirical studies on the impact of REDD+ implemented at the country level. Here, we evaluated a nationwide REDD+ program implemented in Guyana. We apply synthetic matching to estimate tree cover loss that would have occurred in the absence of the national REDD+ program (the counterfactual scenario). We found evidence that the program reduced tree cover loss by 35%, equivalent to 12.8 million tons of avoided carbon emissions. We also found evidence of accelerated tree cover loss at the end of the program. A multinational REDD+ approach implemented in a region that includes continuous forest protection payments will improve national REDD+ outcomes.

Evidence that a national REDD+ program reduces tree cover loss and carbon emissions in a high forest cover, low deforestation country