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Global climate warming poses a significant challenge to humanity; it isassociated with, e.g., rising sea level and declining Arctic sea ice.Increasing extreme events are also considered to be a result of climatewarming~\cite{pachauri2014climate,ogorman_contrasting_2014} and they may havewidespread and diverse effects on health, agriculture, economics and politicalconflicts\cite{hsiang2011civil,helbing_globally_2013,schleussner_armed-conflict_2016,carleton_social_2016}.Still, the detection and quantification of climate change, both in observationsand climate models, constitute a main focus of the scientific community. Herewe develop a new approach based on network and percolation frameworks\cite{cohen2010complex} to study the impacts of climate changes in the pastdecades using historical models and reanalysis records, and we analyze theexpected upcoming impacts using various future global warming scenarios. Morespecifically, we classify the globe area into evolving percolation clusters andfind a discontinuous phase transition, which indicates a consistent polewardexpansion of the largest (tropical) cluster, as well as the weakening of thelink's strength. This is found both in the reanalysis data and in the CoupledModel Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) twenty-first century climatechange simulations~\cite{taylor2012overview}. The analysis is based on highresolution surface (2~m) air temperature field records. We discuss theunderlying mechanism for the observed expansion of the tropical cluster andassociate it with changes in atmospheric circulation represented by theweakening and expansion of the Hadley cell. Our framework can also be usefulfor forecasting the extent of the tropical cluster in order to detect itsinfluence on different areas in response to global warming.

Climate network percolation reveals the expansion and weakening of the tropical component under global warming