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Significance Our article examines the relationship between the population size of Cahokia, one of the most significant archaeological sites in North America, and evidence for major flooding and drought events. We use changes in the concentrations of fecal molecules contained in lake sediment as a proxy of population change and directly compare these variations with paleoenvironmental data from the same sediment core. These data show that a shift to decreased summer precipitation and a Mississippi River flood occurred circa 1150 CE, coinciding with a decline in the region’s population and a major climate transition. Our study highlights the importance of multiple, concurrent environmental stressors in combination with societal tensions as contributors to sociopolitical change.

Fecal stanols show simultaneous flooding and seasonal precipitation change correlate with Cahokia’s population decline