Disease outbreak thresholds emerge from interactions between movement behavior, landscape structure, and epidemiology

Significance Understanding how emerging infectious and zoonotic diseases spread through space and time is critical for predicting outbreaks and designing interventions; disease models are important tools for realizing these goals. Currently, humans are altering the environment in unprecedented ways through urbanization, habitat fragmentation, and climate change. However, the consequences of increasingly heterogeneous landscapes on pathogen transmission and persistence remain unclear. By synthesizing mathematical modeling and movement ecology approaches, we examined how wildlife movement patterns interact with broad-scale landscape structure to affect population-level disease dynamics. We found that habitat fragmentation could counterintuitively promote disease outbreaks but that, for higher wildlife densities and longer infectious periods, small differences in how hosts navigated their environments could dramatically alter observed disease dynamics.