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Significance Using measured rates of evaporative water loss, hourly gridded weather data, a 4 °C warming scenario, and physiological models, we show that songbirds in the deserts of the southwestern United States are increasingly susceptible to death from dehydration on hot days. Smaller birds lose water at a proportionally higher rate, and are hence more vulnerable than larger birds to lethal dehydration arising from greater evaporative cooling demands. Our analysis indicates that, by the end of the present century, exposure to potentially lethal conditions could at least quadruple for smaller species. The increasing extent, frequency, and intensity of dehydrating conditions under a warming climate may alter daily activity patterns, geographic range limits, and the conservation status of affected birds.

Mapping evaporative water loss in desert passerines reveals an expanding threat of lethal dehydration