Wildfire, climate, and invasive grass interactions negatively impact an indicator species by reshaping sagebrush ecosystems

Significance The Great Basin of western North America is larger than 75% of countries worldwide and is comprised mostly of a “sagebrush sea” threatened by a novel disturbance cycle of wildfire and annual grass invasion. The greater sage-grouse is a sagebrush-obligate species whose populations generally track declines in sagebrush, and is highly influential in shaping state and national land-use policy. Using three decades of sage-grouse population count, wildfire, and climate data within a modeling framework that allowed for variable postfire recovery of sagebrush, we provide quantitative evidence that links long-term declines of sage-grouse to chronic effects of wildfire. Projected declines may be slowed or halted by targeting fire suppression in remaining areas of intact sagebrush with high densities of breeding sage-grouse.