Averting a global fisheries disaster

Oceans cover 71% of Earth’s surface and support an estimated 3 billion people with food and vital micronutrients (1). Consequently, the fate of the ocean and its living resources is a first-order question in ecology and environmental science (2). In this context, a 2006 panel of ecologists and fisheries scientists empirically charted the consequences of an ongoing depletion of marine biodiversity, such as declining fisheries, reduced water quality, loss of habitat, and less resilient ecosystems (3). The paper became widely known, however, for a scenario of global fisheries collapse derived from extrapolating catch trends to the year 2048. This projection served as a flash point in the ongoing discussion about the sustainability of global fisheries, or lack thereof (4). A polarized debate ensued, which was productively addressed by a subsequent panel that highlighted solutions for rebuilding depleted fisheries, where appropriate governance structures exist (5). That work, however, along with several follow-up papers (6⇓–8), did not revisit the original projections. A new paper in PNAS (9) now uses updated methodology and an innovative combination of available data on catch trends, life history, and stock assessments to revisit the prospect of a global fisheries disaster, and what may be required to avert it. The analysis of Costello et al. (9) confirms that the average state of global fish stocks is poor and declining. Of 4,714 fisheries assessed in the year 2012, only 32% remained at or above the biomass target that supports maximum sustainable yield (BMSY), whereas 68% have slipped below that critical threshold. This compares to 63% of assessed stocks tracking below BMSY in 2006 (5). Even more concerning is the finding that only 35% of stocks are currently fished at a …