Climate policy needs more than muddling

More than half a century ago political scientist Charles Lindblom (1) argued that a policy of “muddling through” with incremental steps is frequently superior to attempting to design and implement comprehensive policy solutions. After decades of talk the world is finally showing signs of muddling its way toward a range of policies to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide. The recent Paris accord will require nations to regularly report on their emissions and plans, and hence take more seriously the need for abatement (2). Incremental steps toward reducing emissions in the United States include the switch to natural gas and the implementation of the Clean Power Plan for existing power plants (www.epa.gov/cleanpowerplan/what-epa-doing). Outside the United States, the ongoing efforts of the European Union, the agreement between the United States and China (3), and efforts to limit emissions from aircraft and ocean shipping (4), are also promising incremental steps. If climate policy is ultimately to be successful, “muddling through” will need to be combined with some longer-term “visioning.” Image courtesy of Shutterstock/Calin Tatu. Muddling through, however, has serious repercussions. Among them: investing in short-sighted technology and policy approaches that do not scale up. This could occur, in part, because most future emission reductions will proceed nation-by-nation and sector-by-sector. Although such a bottom-up approach can be a good thing (5, 6), without careful foresight it can also lead to solutions that actually impede rather than facilitate deeper emission cuts. Unlike schemes such as emission fees, caps, carbon portfolio standards, or even performance standards, like corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) (all of which can be designed to become more stringent over time in a predictable way), many of the complex systems that result from difficult negotiations may complicate the achievement of future deep emission cuts. Once they become firmly established, complex regulatory systems, …