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In many places of the world, a Neolithic Demographic Transition (NDT) is visible as a several-hundred-year period of increased birth rates coupled with stable mortality rates, resulting in dramatic population growth that is eventually curtailed by increased mortality. Similar processes can be reconstructed in particular detail for the North American Southwest, revealing an anomalously long and spatially variable NDT. Irrigation-dependent societies experienced relatively low birth rates but were quick to achieve a high degree of sociopolitical complexity, whereas societies dependent on dry or rainfed farming experienced higher birth rates but less initial sociopolitical complexity. Low birth rates after A.D. 1200 mark the beginning of the decline of the Hohokam. Overall in the Southwest, birth rates increased slowly from 1100 B.C. to A.D. 500, and remained at high levels with some fluctuation until decreasing rapidly beginning A.D. 1300. Life expectancy at 15 increased slowly from 900 B.C. to A.D. 700, and then increased rapidly for 200 y before fluctuating and then declining after A.D. 1400. Life expectancy at birth, on the other hand, generally declined from 1100 B.C. to A.D. 1100/1200, before rebounding. Farmers took two millennia (∼ 1100 B.C. to ∼ A.D. 1000) to reach the carrying capacity of the agricultural niche in the Southwest.

Long and spatially variable Neolithic Demographic Transition in the North American Southwest