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Background: Over the next 45 years the Australianpopulation will age rapidly as the baby boomercohort moves into retirement and then old age. Asthe population ages there will be substantialgrowth in the demand for hospital bed-days, placinga corresponding demand on infrastructureand staffing.Methods: Australian Bureau of Statistics populationprojections to 2050 and Australian Institute ofHealth and Welfare public hospital bed-day datafrom 1993?94 to 2003?04 were used to developmodels of future demand and examine the sensitivityof the results to model assumptions.Results: Over the long term, demand for publichospital bed-days was projected to grow fasterthan population growth. By 2050, ageing willincrease the demand for bed-days by between70% and 130% depending on the underlyingassumptions, and the proportion of bed-daysdevoted to older people will increase from under50% in 2005 to over 70%.Conclusions: Ageing of the population willincrease the demand for health services just as itwill become harder to recruit health professionalsas the large baby boomer cohort retires from thehealth workforce. Accordingly, we need to plannow to ensure future needs of the ageing population are met.

Demographic change and the future demand for public hospital care in Australia, 2005&nbsp;to 2050

Demographic change and the future demand for public hospital care in Australia, 2005 to 2050