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Effective strategies of vaccine prioritization are essential to mitigate theimpacts of severe infectious diseases. We investigate the role of infectionfatality ratio (IFR) and social contact matrices on vaccination prioritizationusing a compartmental epidemic model fueled by real-world data of differentdiseases and countries. Our study confirms that massive and early vaccinationis extremely effective to reduce the disease fatality if the contagion ismitigated, but the effectiveness is increasingly reduced as vaccinationbeginning delays in an uncontrolled epidemiological scenario. The optimal andleast effective prioritization strategies depend non-linearly onepidemiological variables. Regions of the epidemiological parameter space, inwhich prioritizing the most vulnerable population is more effective than themost contagious individuals, depend strongly on the IFR age profile being, forexample, substantially broader for COVID-19 in comparison with seasonalinfluenza. Demographics and social contact matrices deform the phase diagramsbut do not alter their qualitative shapes.

Effects of infection fatality ratio and social contact matrices on vaccine prioritization strategies