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This paper introduces new methods to analyze the changing progression ofCOVID-19 cases to deaths in different waves of the pandemic. First, analgorithmic approach partitions each country or state's COVID-19 time seriesinto a first wave and subsequent period. Next, offsets between case and deathtime series are learned for each country via a normalized inner product.Combining these with additional calculations, we can determine which countrieshave most substantially reduced the mortality rate of COVID-19. Finally, ourpaper identifies similarities in the trajectories of cases and deaths forEuropean countries and U.S. states. Our analysis refines the popular conceptionthat the mortality rate has greatly decreased throughout Europe during itssecond wave of COVID-19; instead, we demonstrate substantial heterogeneitythroughout Europe and the U.S. The Netherlands exhibited the largest reductionof mortality, a factor of 16, followed by Denmark, France, Belgium, and otherWestern European countries, greater than both Eastern European countries andU.S. states. Some structural similarity is observed between Europe and theUnited States, in which Northeastern states have been the most successful inthe country. Such analysis may help European countries learn from each other'sexperiences and differing successes to develop the best policies to combatCOVID-19 as a collective unit.

COVID-19 second wave mortality in Europe and the United States