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A mathematical model for estimating the risk of airborne transmission of arespiratory infection such as COVID-19, is presented. The model employs basicconcepts from fluid dynamics and incorporates the known scope of factorsinvolved in the airborne transmission of such diseases. Simplicity in themathematical form of the model is by design, so that it can serve not only as acommon basis for scientific inquiry across disciplinary boundaries, but also beunderstandable by a broad audience outside science and academia. The caveatsand limitations of the model are discussed in detail. The model is used toassess the protection from transmission afforded by face coverings made from avariety of fabrics. The reduction in transmission risk associated withincreased physical distance between the host and susceptible is also quantifiedby coupling the model with available data on scalar dispersion in canonicalflows. Finally, the effect of the level of physical activity (or exerciseintensity) of the host and the susceptible in enhancing transmission risk, isalso assessed.

A Mathematical Framework for Estimating Risk of Airborne Transmission of COVID-19 with Application to Face Mask Use and Social Distancing