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Using the inverse spectral theory of the nonlinear Schrodinger (NLS) equationwe correlate the development of rogue waves in oceanic sea states characterizedby the JONSWAP spectrum with the proximity to homoclinic solutions of the NLSequation. We find in numerical simulations of the NLS equation that rogue wavesdevelop for JONSWAP initial data that is ``near'' NLS homoclinic data, whilerogue waves do not occur for JONSWAP data that is ``far'' from NLS homoclinicdata. We show the nonlinear spectral decomposition provides a simple criteriumfor predicting the occurrence and strength of rogue waves (PACS: 92.10.Hm,47.20.Ky, 47.35+i).

Predicting rogue waves in random oceanic sea states