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This article puts party strategies at the centre of the analysis of radical right-wing challengers' fortunes. It extends most previous studies because the shifts of both established and populist parties are envisioned as a complex dynamic system, in which party leaders adaptively learn from feedback and voters continually update their party choices. We argue that agent-based modelling is a fruitful tool to systematically map out the implications of hypotheses on the behaviour of parties, voters and their interactions. Our argument is empirically illustrated by using computer simulations to examine the remarkable rise of the Dutch anti-immigration party PVV. Outcomes reveal that an adaptive strategy leads to large shifts towards the socio-economic left and considerably boost its electoral strength. The more general contribution of this article is that we show how to unravel the mechanisms by which flexible populist parties can find winning positions. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Ltd

How to find the ‘winning formula’? Conducting simulation experiments to grasp the tactical moves and fortunes of populist radical right parties