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We discuss the potential use of an algebraic method to compute the value ofthe solar axial dipole moment at solar minimum, widely considered to be themost reliable precursor of the activity level in the next solar cycle. Themethod consists of summing up the ultimate contributions of individual activeregions to the solar axial dipole moment \revtwo{at the end of the cycle}. Apotential limitation of the approach is its dependence on the underlyingsurface flux transport (SFT) model details. We demonstrate by both analyticaland numerical methods that the factor relating the initial and ultimate dipolemoment contributions of an active region displays a Gaussian dependence onlatitude with parameters that only depend on details of the SFT model throughthe parameter $\eta/\Delta_u$ where $\eta$ is supergranular diffusivity and$\Delta_u$ is the divergence of the meridional flow on the equator. In acomparison with cycles simulated in the 2$\times$2D dynamo model we furtherdemonstrate that the inaccuracies associated with the algebraic method areminor and the method may be able to reproduce the dipole moment values in alarge majority of cycles.

Towards an algebraic method of solar cycle prediction I. Calculating the ultimate dipole contributions of individual active regions