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Infectious diseases may have multiple infectious stages with very difierent epi- demiological attributes, including infectivity and disease progression. These stages are often assumed to have exponentially distributed durations in epidemiological models. However, models that use the exponential distribution assumption (EDA) may generate biased and even misleading results in some cases. This discrepancy is particularly damaging if the mod- els are employed to assist policy-makers in disease control and interventions. This paper studies a mathematical model that includes multiple infectious stages and general distribu- tions for the stage durations (with the exponential distribution as a special case). Formulas for the control reproductive number, Rc, and the basic reproductive number, R0, are de- rived, which can be conveniently applied to models in which speciflc stage distributions are assumed. It is also shown that the disease dynamics are determined by the reproductive

Analysis of a Model with Multiple Infectious Stages and Arbitrarily Distributed Stage Durations