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The method of predictive calculations of the state of the rails as the main element of assessing the state of the track when planning major repairs of the track is given. With a standard service life of 600 to 700 million tons gross, it is necessary to predict the number of defective rails on the track when increasing the service life to 1100 million tons gross (considering local rail replacement during intermediate repairs). The polygon for assigning repairs is determined by the number of “Windows” that can be provided per week on the section. The projected increase in the work of the track causes the need to increase life cycle cost depreciation charges for the formation of the repair Fund for capital repairs by 30-35%.

The determination of the repairs of railway track considering the reliability and risk level