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Direct imaging is a powerful exoplanet discovery technique that iscomplementary to other techniques and offers great promise in the era of 30meter class telescopes. Space-based transit surveys have revolutionized ourunderstanding of the frequency of planets at small orbital radii aroundSun-like stars. The next generation of extremely large ground-based telescopeswill have the angular resolution and sensitivity to directly image planets with$R < 4R_\oplus$ around the very nearest stars. Here, we predict yields from adirect imaging survey of a volume-limited sample of Sun-like stars with theMid-Infrared ELT Imager and Spectrograph (METIS) instrument, planned for the 39m European Southern Observatory (ESO) Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) that isexpected to be operational towards the end of the decade. Using Kepleroccurrence rates, a sample of stars with spectral types A-K within 6.5 pc, andsimulated contrast curves based on an advanced model of what is achievable fromcoronagraphic imaging with adaptive optics, we estimated the expected yieldfrom METIS using Monte Carlo simulations. We find the METIS expected yield ofplanets in the N2 band (10.10 - 12.40 $\mu$m) is 1.14 planets, which is greaterthan comparable observations in the L (3.70 - 3.95 $\mu$m) and M (4.70 - 4.90$\mu$m) bands. We also determined a 24.6% chance of detecting at least oneJovian planet in the background limited regime assuming a 1 hour integration.We calculated the yield per star and estimate optimal observing revisit timesto increase the yield. We also analyzed a northern hemisphere version of thissurvey and found there are additional targets worth considering. In conclusion,we present an observing strategy aimed to maximize the possible yield forlimited telescope time, resulting in 1.48 expected planets in the N2 band.

Exoplanets with ELT-METIS I: Estimating the direct imaging exoplanet yield around stars within 6.5 parsecs