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Short-arc orbit determination is crucial when an asteroid is firstdiscovered. In these cases usually the observations are so few that thedifferential correction procedure may not converge. We have developed aninitial orbit computation method, based on the systematic ranging, an orbitdetermination techniques which systematically explores a raster in thetopocentric range and range-rate space region inside the admissible region. Weobtain a fully rigorous computation of the probability for the asteroid thatcould impact the Earth within few days from the discovery, without any a prioriassumption. We test our method on the two past impactors 2008 TC3 and 2014 AA,on some very well known cases, and on two particular objects observed by theESA Gaia mission.

Short arc orbit determination and imminent impactors in the Gaia era