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Aims: We predict the exoplanet yield of a space-based mid-infrared nullinginterferometer using Monte Carlo simulations. We quantify the number andproperties of detectable exoplanets and identify those target stars that havethe highest or most complete detection rate. We investigate how changes in theunderlying technical assumptions and uncertainties in the underlying planetpopulation impact the scientific return. Methods: We simulated $2'000$exoplanetary systems, based on planet occurrence statistics from Kepler withrandomly orientated orbits and uniformly distributed albedos around each of$326$ nearby ($d < 20~\text{pc}$) stars. Assuming thermal equilibrium andblackbody emission, together with the limiting spatial resolution andsensitivity of our simulated instrument in the three specific bands $5.6$,$10.0$, and $15.0~\mu\text{m}$, we quantified the number of detectableexoplanets as a function of their radii and equilibrium temperatures. Results:Approximately $\sim315_{-77}^{+113}$ exoplanets, with radii $0.5~R_\text{Earth}\leq R_\text{p} \leq 6~R_\text{Earth}$, were detected in at least one band andhalf were detected in all three bands during $\sim0.52$ years of mission timeassuming throughputs $3.5$ times worse than those for the James Webb SpaceTelescope and $\sim40\%$ overheads. Accounting for stellar leakage and(unknown) exozodiacal light, the discovery phase of the mission very likelyrequires $2$ - $3$ years in total. Roughly $85$ planets could be habitable($0.5~R_\text{Earth} \leq R_\text{p} \leq 1.75~R_\text{Earth}$ and$200~\text{K} \leq T_\text{eq} \leq 450~\text{K}$) and are prime targets forspectroscopic observations in a second mission phase.

Simulating the Exoplanet Yield of a Space-based MIR Interferometer Based on Kepler Statistics