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It is proposed that the observed near-surface inflows towards the activeregions and sunspot zones provide a nonlinear feedback mechanism that limitsthe amplitude of a Babcock-Leighton-type solar dynamo and determines thevariation of the cycle strength. This hypothesis is tested with surface fluxtransport simulations including converging latitudinal flows that depend on thesurface distribution of magnetic flux. The inflows modulate the build-up ofpolar fields (represented by the axial dipole) by reducing the tilt angles ofbipolar magnetic regions and by affecting the cross-equator transport ofleading-polarity magnetic flux. With flux input derived from the observedrecord of sunspot groups, the simulations cover the period between 1874 and1980 (corresponding to solar cycles 11 to 20). The inclusion of the inflowsleads to a strong correlation of the simulated axial dipole strength duringactivity minimum with the observed amplitude of the subsequent cycle. This inagreement with empirical correlations and in line with what is expected from aBabcock-Leighton-type dynamo. The results provide evidence that the latitudinalinflows are a key ingredient in determining the amplitude of solar cycles.

Are the strengths of solar cycles determined by converging flows towards the activity belts?