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Lithium-ion technologies are increasingly employed to electrifytransportation and provide stationary energy storage for electrical grids, andas such their development has garnered much attention. However, theirdeployment is still relatively limited, and their broader adoption will dependon their potential for cost reduction and performance improvement.Understanding this potential can inform critical climate change mitigationstrategies, including public policies and technology development efforts.However, many existing models of past cost decline, which often serve asstarting points for forecasting models, rely on limited data series andmeasures of technological progress. Here we systematically collect, harmonize,and combine various data series of price, market size, research anddevelopment, and performance of lithium-ion technologies. We then developrepresentative series for these measures and employ performance curve models toestimate improvement rates. We also develop a method to incorporate additionalperformance characteristics into these models, including energy density andspecific energy performance metrics. When energy density is incorporated intothe definition of service provided by a lithium-ion cell, estimatedtechnological improvement rates increase considerably, suggesting thatpreviously reported improvement rates might underestimate the rate oflithium-ion technologies' change. Moreover, our estimates suggest the degree towhich lithium-ion technologies' price decline might have been limited byperformance requirements other than cost per energy capacity. These rates alsosuggest that battery technologies developed for stationary applications, whererestrictions on volume and mass are relaxed, might achieve faster costdeclines, though engineering-based mechanistic cost modeling is required tofurther characterize this potential.

Re-examining rates of lithium-ion battery technology improvement and cost decline