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The lack of evidence for the existence of extraterrestrial life, even thesimplest forms of animal life, makes it is difficult to decide whether thesearch for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) is more a high-risk,high-payoff endeavor than a futile attempt. Here we insist that even ifextraterrestrial civilizations do exist and communicate, the likelihood ofdetecting their signals crucially depends on whether the Earth lies within aregion of the galaxy covered by such signals. By considering possiblepopulations of independent emitters in the galaxy, we build a statistical modelof the domain covered by hypothetical extraterrestrial signals to derive thedetection probability that the Earth is within such a domain. We show that forgeneral distributions of the signal longevity and directionality, the meannumber of detectable emitters is less than one even for detection probabilitiesas large as 50\%, regardless of the number of emitters in the galaxy.

Signal coverage approach to the detection probability of hypothetical extraterrestrial emitters in the Milky Way