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We study the population size time series of a Neotropical small mammal withthe intent of detecting and modelling population regulation processes generatedby density-dependent factors and their possible delayed effects. Theapplication of analysis tools based on principles of statistical generality arenowadays a common practice for describing these phenomena, but, in general,they are more capable of generating clear diagnosis rather than grantingvaluable modelling. For this reason, in our approach, we detect the principaltemporal structures on the bases of different correlation measures, and fromthese results we build an ad-hoc minimalist autoregressive model thatincorporates the main drivers of the dynamics. Surprisingly our model iscapable of reproducing very well the time patterns of the empirical series and,for the first time, clearly outlines the importance of the time of attainingsexual maturity as a central temporal scale for the dynamics of this species.In fact, an important advantage of this analysis scheme is that all the modelparameters are directly biologically interpretable and potentially measurable,allowing a consistency check between model outputs and independentmeasurements.

Detecting and modelling delayed density-dependence in abundance time series of a small mammal (Didelphis aurita)