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How does network structure affect diffusion? Recent studies suggest that theanswer depends on the type of contagion. Complex contagions, unlike infectiousdiseases (simple contagions), are affected by social reinforcement andhomophily. Hence, the spread within highly clustered communities is enhanced,while diffusion across communities is hampered. A common hypothesis is thatmemes and behaviors are complex contagions. We show that, while most memesindeed behave like complex contagions, a few viral memes spread across manycommunities, like diseases. We demonstrate that the future popularity of a memecan be predicted by quantifying its early spreading pattern in terms ofcommunity concentration. The more communities a meme permeates, the more viralit is. We present a practical method to translate data about communitystructure into predictive knowledge about what information will spread widely.This connection may lead to significant advances in computational socialscience, social media analytics, and marketing applications.

Virality Prediction and Community Structure in Social Networks