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Ecological association studies often assume monotonicity such as between biodiversity and environmental properties although there is growing evidence that nonmonotonic relations dominate in nature. Here, we apply machine-learning algorithms to reveal the nonmonotonic association between microbial diversity and an anthropogenic-induced large-scale change, the browning of freshwaters, along a longitudinal gradient covering 70 boreal lakes in Scandinavia. Measures of bacterial richness and evenness (alpha-diversity) showed nonmonotonic trends in relation to environmental gradients, peaking at intermediate levels of browning. Depending on the statistical methods, variables indicative for browning could explain 5% of the variance in bacterial community composition (beta-diversity) when applying standard methods assuming monotonic relations and up to 45% with machine-learning methods taking non-monotonicity into account. This non-monotonicity observed at the community level was explained by the complex interchangeable nature of individual taxa responses as shown by a high degree of nonmonotonic responses of individual bacterial sequence variants to browning. Furthermore, the nonmonotonic models provide the position of thresholds and predict alternative bacterial diversity trajectories in boreal freshwater as a result of ongoing climate and land-use changes, which in turn will affect entire ecosystem metabolism and likely greenhouse gas production.

Multiple thresholds and trajectories of microbial biodiversity predicted across browning gradients by neural networks and decision tree learning