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We study the severity of conflict-related violence in Colombia at anunprecedented granular scale in space and across time. Splitting the data intodifferent geographical regions and different historically-relevant eras, weuncover variations in the patterns of conflict severity which we then explainin terms of local conflict actors' different collective behaviors and/orconditions using a simple mathematical model of conflict actors' groupingdynamics (coalescence and fragmentation). Specifically, variations in theapproximate scaling values of the distributions of event lethalities can beexplained by the changing strength ratio of the local conflict actors fordistinct conflict periods and organizational regions. In this way, our findingsopen the door to a new granular spectroscopy of human conflicts in terms oflocal conflict actor strength ratios for any armed conflict.

Explaining conflict violence in terms of conflict actor dynamics