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The detection of cause-effect relationships from the analysis ofpaleoclimatic records is a crucial step to disentangle the main mechanisms atwork in the climate system. Here, we show that the approach based on thegeneralized Fluctuation-Dissipation Relation, complemented by the analysis ofthe Transfer Entropy, allows the causal links to be identified betweentemperature, CO2 concentration and astronomical forcing during the glacialcycles of the last 800 kyr based on Antarctic ice core records. Whenconsidering the whole spectrum of time scales, the results of the analysissuggest that temperature drives CO2 concentration, or that are both driven bythe common astronomical forcing. However, considering only millennial-scalefluctuations, the results reveal the presence of more complex causal links,indicating that CO2 variations contribute to driving the changes of temperatureon such time scales. The results also evidence a slow temporal variability inthe strength of the millennial-scale causal links between temperature and CO2concentration.

Extracting causation from millennial-scale climate fluctuations in the last 800 kyr