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While many theoretical studies have revealed the strategies that could leadto and maintain cooperation in the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma, less is knownabout what human participants actually do in this game and how strategieschange when being confronted with anonymous partners in each round. Previousattempts used short experiments, made different assumptions of possiblestrategies, and led to very different conclusions. We present here two longtreatments that differ in the partner matching strategy used, i.e. fixed orshuffled partners. Here we use unsupervised methods to cluster the playersbased on their actions and then Hidden Markov Model to infer what are thosestrategies in each cluster. Analysis of the inferred strategies reveals thatfixed partner interaction leads to a behavioral self-organization. Shuffledpartners generate subgroups of strategies that remain entangled, apparentlyblocking the self-selection process that leads to fully cooperatingparticipants in the fixed partner treatment. Analyzing the latter in moredetail shows that AllC, AllD, TFT- and WSLS-like behavior can be observed. Thisstudy also reveals that long treatments are needed as experiments less than 25rounds capture mostly the learning phase participants go through in these kindsof experiments.

Inferring Strategies from Observations in Long Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma Experiments