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Governments worldwide are implementing mass vaccination programs in an effort to end the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Here, we evaluated the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccination program in its early stage and predicted the path to herd immunity in the U.S. By early March 2021, we estimated that vaccination reduced the total number of new cases by 4.4 million (from 33.0 to 28.6 million), prevented approximately 0.12 million hospitalizations (from 0.89 to 0.78 million), and decreased the population infection rate by 1.34 percentage points (from 10.10 to 8.76%). We built a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model with vaccination to predict herd immunity, following the trends from the early-stage vaccination program. Herd immunity could be achieved earlier with a faster vaccination pace, lower vaccine hesitancy, and higher vaccine effectiveness. The Delta variant has substantially postponed the predicted herd immunity date, through a combination of reduced vaccine effectiveness, lowered recovery rate, and increased infection and death rates. These findings improve our understanding of the COVID-19 vaccination and can inform future public health policies.

Impact of vaccination on the COVID-19 pandemic in U.S. states