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Relative sea level rise at tide gauge Galveston Pier 21, Texas, is the combination of absolute sea level rise and land subsidence. We estimate subsidence rates of 3.53 mm/a during 1909–1937, 6.08 mm/a during 1937–1983, and 3.51 mm/a since 1983. Subsidence attributed to aquifer-system compaction accompanying groundwater extraction contributed as much as 85% of the 0.7 m relative sea level rise since 1909, and an additional 1.9 m is projected by 2100, with contributions from land subsidence declining from 30 to 10% over the projection interval. We estimate a uniform absolute sea level rise rate of 1.10 mm ± 0.19/a in the Gulf of Mexico during 1909–1992 and its acceleration of 0.270 mm/a 2  at Galveston Pier 21 since 1992. This acceleration is 87% of the value for the highest scenario of global mean sea level rise. Results indicate that evaluating this extreme scenario would be valid for resource-management and flood-hazard-mitigation strategies for coastal communities in the Gulf of Mexico, especially those affected by subsidence.

Land subsidence contributions to relative sea level rise at tide gauge Galveston Pier 21, Texas