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Shoreline hardening, which causes beach loss globally, will accelerate with sea level rise (SLR), causing more beach loss if management practices are not changed. To improve beach conservation efforts, current and future shoreline hardening patterns on sandy beaches need deeper analysis. A shoreline change model driven by incremental SLR (0.25, 0.46, 0.74 m) is used to simulate future changes in the position of an administrative hazard zone, as a proxy for risk of hardening at all sandy beaches on the island of O‘ahu, Hawai ‘i. In Hawai ‘i, hardening can be triggered when evidence of erosion is within 6.1 m (“20 ft”) of certain structures, allowing an applicant to request emergency protection. Results show an increase in shoreline vulnerability to hardening with SLR governed by backshore land use patterns. The largest increase (+ 7.6%) occurred between modern-day and 0.25 m of SLR (very likely by year 2050) with half of all beachfront shoreline at risk by 0.74 m of SLR. Maximum risk of shoreline hardening and beach loss is projected to occur from modern-day and near-term hardening because of the heavily developed aspect of some shoreline segments. Adaptation to SLR should be considered an immediate need—not solely a future issue.

Risk of shoreline hardening and associated beach loss peaks before mid-century: Oʻahu, Hawaiʻi