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Sapindus emarginatus  Vahl (Sapindaceae) also known as ‘Indian Soap nut’ is significantly important for saponin content in its fruits. However, its current population in India is heavily fragmented due to a lack of sustainable harvesting practices. Moreover, changing climatic regimes may further limit its distribution and possibly compromise the survival of the species in nature. The aim of the present study was to: predict the future distribution range of  S. emarginatus ; identify the bioclimatic variables limiting this distribution and to evaluate its adaptive fitness and genomic resilience towards these variables. To determine future species distribution range and identify limiting bioclimatic variables, we applied two different ecological niche models (ENMs; BioClim and MaxEnt) on real occurrence data (n = 88 locations). The adaptive fitness of the species was evaluated by quantifying the genetic variability with AFLP markers and marker-environmental associations, using AFLP-associated Bayesian statistics. We found 77% overlap between the baseline (2030) and predicted (2100) species distribution ranges, which were primarily determined by maximum temperature (T MAX ) and mean annual precipitation (MAP). The T MAX  and MAP contributed 43.1% and 27.1%, respectively to ENM model prediction. Furthermore, AFLP loci significantly associated with bioclimatic variables, and T MAX  and MAP represent the lowest proportion (6.15%), confirming to the severe response of the species genome towards these variables. Nevertheless, the very low Linkage disequilibrium (LD) in these loci (4.54%) suggests that the current sensitivity to T MAX  and MAP is subject to change during recombination. Moreover, a combination of high heterozygosity (0.40–0.43) and high within-population variability (91.63 ± 0.31%) confirmed high adaptive fitness to maintain reproductive success. Therefore, the current populations of  S. emarginatus  have substantial genomic resilience towards future climate change, albeit significant conservation efforts (including mass multiplication) are warranted to avoid future deleterious impacts of inbreeding depression on the fragmented populations.

Adaptive fitness of Sapindus emarginatus Vahl populations towards future climatic regimes and the limiting factors of its distribution