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Lake Lanier (Georgia, USA) is home to more than 11,000 microbial Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs), many of which exhibit clear annual abundance patterns. To assess the dynamics of this microbial community, we collected time series data of 16S and 18S rRNA gene sequences, recovered from 29 planktonic shotgun metagenomic datasets. Based on these data, we constructed a dynamic mathematical model of bacterial interactions in the lake and used it to analyze changes in the abundances of OTUs. The model accounts for interactions among 14 sub-communities (SCs), which are composed of OTUs blooming at the same time of the year, and three environmental factors. It captures the seasonal variations in abundances of the SCs quite well. Simulation results suggest that changes in water temperature affect the various SCs differentially and that the timing of perturbations is critical. We compared the model results with published results from Lake Mendota (Wisconsin, USA). These comparative analyses between lakes in two very different geographical locations revealed substantially more cooperation and less competition among species in the warmer Lake Lanier than in Lake Mendota.

Model-based Comparisons of the Abundance Dynamics of Bacterial Communities in Two Lakes