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The main objective of our study was to analyze the mean time to delivery following cervical ripening with a 10 mg dinoprostone vaginal insert. We performed a retrospective observational study at the level III maternity ward of Angers university hospital. We included all women who had cervical ripening with dinoprostone between January 1 st , 2015 and September 30 th , 2016. Overall, 405 patients were included, and 59.3% (240/405) were nulliparous. The mean time to delivery was 20h39 min ± 10h49 min. 21% of deliveries (86/405) occurred between midnight and 6 h a.m., and the cesarean section rate was 33% (132/405). Multiple regression analysis showed that nulliparity, overweight (BMI ≥ 25), a closed cervix on initial examination and the absence of premature rupture of membranes (PRM) all significantly increased the mean time to delivery. We developed a mathematical model integrating the aforementioned factors and their impact to help predict the mean time to delivery following cervical ripening with dinoprostone vaginal insert: Y = 961.188–80.346 × parity + 21.437 × BMI–165.263 × cervical dilation–241.759 × PRM. This equation allows obstetricians to calculate a personalized time to delivery for each patient, allowing a precise scheduling of dinoprostone insert placement, and thus improving the organization in busy maternity wards.

A mathematical model to predict mean time to delivery following cervical ripening with dinoprostone vaginal insert