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The prevalence of many urban phenomena changes systematically with populationsize. We propose a theory that unifies models of economic complexity andcultural evolution to derive urban scaling. The theory accounts for thedifference in scaling exponents and average prevalence across phenomena, aswell as the difference in the variance within phenomena across cities ofsimilar size. The central ideas are that a number of necessary complementaryfactors must be simultaneously present for a phenomenon to occur, and that thediversity of factors is logarithmically related to population size. The modelreveals that phenomena that require more factors will be less prevalent, scalemore superlinearly and show larger variance across cities of similar size. Thetheory applies to data on education, employment, innovation, disease and crime,and it entails the ability to predict the prevalence of a phenomenon acrosscities, given information about the prevalence in a single city.

Explaining the Prevalence, Scaling and Variance of Urban Phenomena